Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Fears of Soft Power

Iran also sees American soft power as a threat, and therefore as a rationale for policy decisions.

Consider the arrest of Haleh Esfandiari, which came, according to Ahmendinejad, as a direct result of the US's exertion of "soft power." (See "Intersection of comparative politics and international relations") [Esfandiari was released from prison and allowed to leave the country on 3 September.]

Yahoo! News published Fredrik Dahl's August 8th Reuters article, "Iran sees U.S. plot to topple its leadership"

"An Iranian minister said he believed the United States had dropped the idea of attacking Iran but wanted to topple its leadership through what he called a 'soft revolution'...

"The United States accuses Iran of fomenting instability in Iraq. Iran blames the presence of U.S. forces for the violence threatening to tear its neighbor apart. Washington and Tehran are also at loggerheads over Iran's nuclear program...

"The U.S. administration, which believes Tehran is seeking to build atom bombs, says it would prefer a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff but has not ruled out military action.

"Iran, which insists its nuclear program is solely aimed at generating electricity, has threatened to retaliate if attacked.

"It says Washington is working for a 'soft revolution' in Iran with the help of intellectuals and others in the country.

"Intelligence Minister Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei listed what he said were plans by the United States and its allies to undermine and discredit Iran's leaders:

"'The first one which the Americans are leading ... is to create disputes and divisions among the revolutionary forces.'

"He said they were also trying to portray the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who often rails against the West and Israel, as 'useless in order to ready the ground for the entrance of some of their own elements into the government.'

"But, Mohseni-Ejei said: 'This plot will not be successful.'"




Last May, The Jerusalem Post suggested that "Bush okayed 'soft revolution' in Iran."

"The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) received presidential approval for a covert operation in Iran aimed at destabilizing the Islamic Republic by 'non-lethal' means, ABC news reported early Saturday morning.

"According to the report, the plan includes several non-military measures by which the US could deeply harm the Iranian economy through global measures while simultaneously undermining the regime on a local political level by distributing propaganda and building on an already existing lack of support for the regime among Iranians...

"A commentator pointed [to] 'ferment among the students and the intellectuals' of Iran as fertile ground from which propaganda and encouragement towards the local population to overthrow the government could bear fruit..."




Michael Slackman, writing in the New York Times on 5 September, reemphasizes the theme that has appeared here before.

Hard Times Help Leaders in Iran Tighten Their Grip

"Rents are soaring, inflation hovers around 17 percent, and 10 million Iranians live below the poverty line. The police said they shut 20 barbershops for men in Tehran last week because they offered inappropriate hairstyles, and women have been banned from riding bicycles in many places... in a country whose leaders see national security, government stability and Islamic values as inextricably entwined, problems that usually would constitute threats to the leadership are instead viewed as an opportunity to secure its rule...

"Paradoxically, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's economic missteps and the animosity generated in the West by his aggressive posture on the nuclear issue have helped Iran’s leaders hold back what they see as corrupting foreign influences...

"'[The Iranian leaders] are convinced the rest of the world is trying to put pressure on Iran to keep Iran down,' said [a Western] diplomat, insisting on anonymity so as not to compromise his ability to work in Iran. 'They believe if Iran makes a concession to the West on the nuclear issue, it will be the first step toward regime change.'...


"'The only thing that has kept Ahmadinejad in power is the support of the leadership,' said Muhammad Atrianfar, publisher of two newspapers that have been closed and an ally of a former president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani...

"Many journalists, academics, and former government officials said they thought Mr. Ahmadinejad had been more active and reckless with the economy than Ayatollah Khamenei had expected. But he is comfortable with Mr. Ahmadinejad because he can count on him to preserve the system and to roll back political, economic and social changes that conservatives feared were insidious steps toward a velvet revolution, those interviewed here said..."




See also: More Distractions


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